When Steve Smith dropped that catch at Lord's Cricket Ground in June, no one thought it would trigger a full-blown crisis in Australia’s Test batting order. But that moment — a simple misjudgment in the 2025 ICC World Test Championship finalLondon — became the catalyst for a months-long rethink. Now, with the Ashes 2025Optus Stadium just six weeks away, selectors are wrestling with one of their toughest decisions in a decade: where to place Smith and Cameron Green in the lineup. The answer, according to insiders, might be radical — and it’s already dividing experts.
The Case for the Switch
"I have a strong feeling that Cam Green will bat at 4 this summer with Steve Smith in at 3," said Adam White, a senior commentator for SEN (Sports Entertainment Network). It’s not just White. Bharat Sundaresan, a lead analyst at ESPNcricinfo, backed the move, calling it "the ideal scenario" — if Smith will agree. And that’s the big if.
Sundaresan recalled a tense conversation from last year: "I thought he would jump and strangle me he was that annoyed" when he first floated the idea of Smith moving down from his traditional No. 5 spot. Smith, after all, has thrived at No. 5 since his return from suspension — anchoring innings, rotating strike, and playing the role of the calm in Australia’s often chaotic middle order. But things have changed. Green, once seen as a destructive all-rounder, is now a man rebuilding. After two years of shoulder and hamstring injuries, he’s back in rhythm — scoring back-to-back centuries in the Sheffield Shield, looking fluid, confident, and — crucially — available.
"Cam has looked in great rhythm coming in," Sundaresan noted. "He looks like everything is functioning well given the issues he has had over the years." Moving him to No. 4, Sundaresan argues, gives him the space to settle — not as a savior at No. 3, but as a stabilizer after the openers. Smith, meanwhile, has proven over 150 Tests he can handle the pressure of No. 3. His average at that position? 62.4. In his last 10 innings at No. 3, he averaged 78.2. That’s not just good — that’s world-class.
The Fallout from Lord’s
The loss at Lord’s didn’t just sting — it exposed cracks. Australia’s middle order collapsed under pressure, with no one stepping up after the openers. Marnus Labuschagne, once the backbone of the lineup, was dropped for the subsequent West Indies tour. His absence wasn’t just about form; it was about philosophy. The selectors wanted more aggression, more adaptability. Enter Sam Konstas and Josh Inglis — young, explosive, unproven.
The West Indies tour in June-July 2025 became a testing ground. Smith missed the first Test due to a finger injury from that fateful Lord’s catch. Labuschagne was left out entirely. Konstas and Inglis were thrust into the spotlight. Konstas scored 12 and 4. Inglis made 38 and 19. Neither convinced. Meanwhile, Green, returning from injury, batted at No. 6 in the second Test and smashed 87 — his first fifty in Tests in 18 months. The message was clear: Green is ready. But where?
The Selector’s Nightmare
"I do not envy the job selectors have ahead of them," admitted Todd Greenberg, CEO of Cricket Australia. With only three Sheffield Shield matches left before the Ashes, every run counts. Players are fighting for survival. Glenn Maxwell is trying to resurrect his Test career. Matthew Short is sidelined with a side strain. Sean Abbott has been shuffled in as a reserve, then promoted, then dropped again.
And then there’s the captaincy question. Pat Cummins remains captain, but his fitness is monitored daily. If he’s out, who leads? The pressure isn’t just tactical — it’s psychological. The Ashes isn’t just a series. It’s history. Since 1882, no Australian team has won without a stable top four. The 2019 side had Paine, Warner, Smith, Labuschagne — a unit. This one? Still searching.
What’s Next? The Final Countdown
Before the Ashes, Australia faces a crucial three-match ODI series against India. It’s not just about white-ball form — it’s a dress rehearsal. How will Smith handle the pressure of opening the innings in ODIs? Will Green adapt to the pace of international cricket after injury? The answers will shape the Test lineup.
One thing’s certain: the old order is gone. Smith won’t be the same player he was in 2019. Green won’t be the same player he was in 2021. And the selectors? They’re not just choosing positions — they’re choosing identities. Do they want the veteran’s wisdom at No. 3? Or do they want the young gun’s fire at No. 4? The next six weeks will decide.
Behind the Numbers: The Batting Order Puzzle
- Steve Smith’s Test average at No. 3: 62.4 (in 27 innings)
- Cameron Green’s last Test century: July 2023 — 87 against Pakistan in Perth
- Number of Tests Smith has batted at No. 5 since 2019: 42
- Sheffield Shield matches left before Ashes selection: 3
- Days until first Ashes Test: 42 (as of October 10, 2025)
The irony? The very thing that nearly ended Green’s career — injury — might be the reason he gets his best shot. And Smith? He’s no longer the rebellious prodigy. He’s the elder statesman now. But ask him about the switch, and he’ll just smile. "I’ll bat wherever they put me," he told reporters after the West Indies tour. "As long as we win."
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is moving Steve Smith to No. 3 such a big deal?
Smith has spent over a decade as Australia’s No. 5 — the anchor who rebuilt innings after early wickets. Moving him to No. 3 means he’d face the new ball more often, a role he hasn’t filled regularly since 2018. But his stats at No. 3 (62.4 average) are better than his No. 5 average (59.1), making it statistically logical — if psychologically challenging for him and the team’s traditional structure.
What’s the risk of promoting Cameron Green to No. 4?
Green’s injury history makes him a gamble. He’s played just 12 Tests since 2021. Promoting him to No. 4 — a position that demands both resilience and aggression — could backfire if he’s not fully match-fit. But his recent Sheffield Shield form (two centuries in three matches) suggests he’s recovered mentally and physically. The risk is real, but so is the reward.
How did the World Test Championship final loss impact selection?
Australia’s collapse at Lord’s — losing by 129 runs despite a 300+ first innings — exposed a fragile middle order. Labuschagne’s dismissal wasn’t just about form; it was about philosophy. The selectors wanted more dynamism, less predictability. That’s why Konstas and Inglis got chances, and why Green’s return is now seen as a solution rather than a backup.
Is there a precedent for this kind of batting order shift in Ashes history?
Yes. In 2005, Australia moved Michael Clarke from No. 6 to No. 3 after Justin Langer’s retirement — and he thrived. In 2010, Ricky Ponting shifted from No. 3 to No. 5 to accommodate Michael Clarke. These weren’t just changes — they were strategic recalibrations under pressure. The Ashes has always rewarded adaptability. This is just the latest chapter.
What happens if Smith refuses to move to No. 3?
If Smith declines, Australia may keep him at No. 5 and push Green to No. 3 — a less ideal scenario, since Green has never opened or batted at No. 3 in Tests. That could mean promoting someone like Jake Fraser-McGurk, who’s explosive but untested in long-form cricket. The selectors would then be gambling on youth over experience — a gamble they’ve avoided for years.
How will the ODI series against India affect Ashes selection?
The ODI series isn’t just about T20 prep — it’s a live audition. If Smith opens and scores 70+ in a high-pressure game, selectors will see him as a No. 3 candidate. If Green scores a quick 50 at No. 4 and finishes the innings, it’ll confirm his readiness. The format may be shorter, but the stakes are Test-sized.