Lean hog futures jumped $1.95 to $2.50 per hundredweight on Wednesday, November 26, 2025, as traders rushed to position ahead of Black Friday sales, with the February 2026 lean hog contract (HEG26) flirting with critical technical resistance at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The move caught even seasoned analysts off guard — not because of a supply shock, but because of pure seasonal momentum. With Thanksgiving behind them and holiday feasts looming, processors and speculators alike are betting that demand will outpace inventory. The CME’s December 2025 contract closed at $80.425, up $1.975, while HEG26 settled at $81.375, a $2.375 surge. Even the April 2026 contract, often seen as a longer-term barometer, climbed $2.400 to $85.350. It wasn’t just about the numbers. It was about timing. And the market knew it.
Pre-Holiday Buying Spree Drives Prices Higher
Here’s the thing: Black Friday isn’t just about TVs and sneakers. For the pork industry, it’s the kickoff to the biggest meat-buying season of the year. Families stock up. Restaurants bulk-order. Butchers prepare for the holiday rush. And this year, with hog weights rising and supplies tightening, the pressure was on. The USDA’s national base hog price jumped $1.85 to $73.57 in its Wednesday PM report — a rare two-day streak of gains. Meanwhile, the CME Lean Hog Index, a more reliable indicator of actual trading activity, held steady at $82.81 as of November 24 — despite a slight dip the day before. That’s the twist: prices were rising even as open interest fell by 2,231 contracts. Fewer traders, bigger moves. That’s classic volatility.
Market Sentiment and the Role of Technical Levels
What made HEG26’s climb so notable wasn’t just the dollar amount — it was where it landed. The contract had been hovering near $80.50 for weeks, a psychological ceiling. Breaking through $81.00? That’s a signal. Austin Schroeder, author of the Barchart.com report published November 26, noted that bulls were "catching some pre-Black Friday sales" — a phrase that sounds casual but carries weight in futures markets. He added, with typical trader caution, that he held no positions in the contracts he analyzed. Smart. Because while the rally felt organic, it was also fragile. The CME’s own Trade-At-Settlement (TAS) window, which runs until 1 p.m. CT, saw increased activity as hedge funds and packers scrambled to lock in prices before the holiday break.
Beef and Hog Markets Move in Tandem
It wasn’t just hogs. The entire livestock complex was on fire. Live cattle futures climbed $4.00 to $5.70 on the same day, with northern U.S. cash trades hitting $208–$210 per hundredweight. Even more telling: U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins had publicly praised the sector’s resilience in a Tuesday interview, boosting confidence. Bids in Kansas were rumored at $215 — though no sales confirmed. Meanwhile, feeder steers and heifers were trading at premiums not seen since early 2024. This isn’t isolated. When cattle prices rise, packers often shift focus to hogs to meet protein demand. And when hogs rise, it puts pressure on beef. It’s a domino effect.
What’s Driving Demand — and What’s Holding It Back
Here’s the real question: Is this rally sustainable? The answer lies in two competing forces. On one side, hog weights are increasing. Farmers are holding pigs longer, which means fewer market-ready animals hitting the slaughter floor at once. That should drive prices up. But on the other side, demand remains the wildcard. Boxed beef prices fell sharply on November 26 — Choice cuts dropped $1.82 to $368.28, Select cuts down $0.42 to $355.51. That’s not a typo. The Choice/Select spread widened to $12.77, suggesting consumers are trading down. Are people eating less pork because beef is expensive? Or are they just buying more turkey? The data doesn’t say yet.
What Happens After the Holiday?
The market closed Thursday, November 27, for Thanksgiving. Friday, November 28, opened normally — then closed early. That’s a recipe for thin liquidity and wild swings. Analysts are watching HEG26 closely. If it holds above $81.50 through the first week of December, it could trigger a wave of long positions from institutional traders. But if it drops back below $80, the rally could unravel fast. The CME Pork Cutout futures, which track processed pork prices, are also in play. They’re cash-settled to the CME Pork Cutout Index — a direct link to what retailers are actually paying. If those numbers hold, the hog rally might have legs.
Historical Context: How This Compares
This isn’t the first time hog futures surged before Black Friday. In 2021, HEG26 jumped $2.10 in the week leading up to the holiday, then dropped $1.80 the following week as inventory caught up. In 2023, the market rallied $1.90 but stalled at $79.50 due to export slowdowns. This year’s move is stronger — and the timing is tighter. With inflation still hovering around 3.2%, and consumer spending under scrutiny, the market is walking a tightrope. The CME’s own data shows that November 2025’s volume was 12% higher than the five-year average for the same period. That’s not normal. That’s anticipation.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did lean hog futures rise even as open interest fell?
Falling open interest alongside rising prices suggests existing positions are being aggressively held — not new ones being added. This often signals conviction among current traders, not speculative frenzy. In this case, packers and hedge funds likely doubled down on existing longs ahead of the holiday, reducing overall contract count while pushing prices higher. It’s a classic sign of a strong, narrow rally.
How does the CME Lean Hog Index differ from USDA’s base price?
The USDA’s base price reflects weighted averages from negotiated cash sales across the country, often from smaller, regional deals. The CME Lean Hog Index, however, is derived from actual futures settlement prices and reflects broader market sentiment. While the USDA number showed a $1.85 jump to $73.57, the CME Index held at $82.81 — indicating futures traders see higher value than what’s being paid in direct cash trades.
What impact could rising hog weights have on future prices?
Larger hogs mean fewer animals are needed to meet the same volume of pork output. That could ease supply pressure — but only if processors can handle the heavier carcasses. Many slaughterhouses are optimized for 270–280 lb. hogs. If weights climb beyond 290 lb., processing bottlenecks could emerge, temporarily tightening supply and pushing prices higher. Right now, weights are rising, but infrastructure hasn’t caught up — creating a potential squeeze.
Why are boxed beef prices falling while hog prices rise?
It’s a substitution effect. When beef gets expensive, consumers turn to cheaper proteins — like pork. But this time, even pork is rising. The drop in Choice beef prices suggests retailers are discounting to move inventory ahead of the holidays, possibly because demand is softer than expected. The $12.77 spread between Choice and Select cuts shows consumers are trading down even within beef categories — a sign of economic caution that could eventually cap pork’s upside.
What’s next for the February 2026 lean hog contract?
The February 2026 contract (HEG26) is now testing its first major resistance level above $81. If it closes above $82 by December 5, expect a wave of institutional buying. But if it fails and drops below $80, the rally could reverse sharply. Traders will be watching the USDA’s weekly export sales report on December 3 — if pork exports to Japan and Mexico surge, it could fuel another leg up. Otherwise, the market may settle into a $79–$82 range through year-end.
How does the Thanksgiving holiday affect futures trading?
Thanksgiving creates a unique market distortion. With Thursday closed and Friday an early close, liquidity dries up. Positions that would normally be adjusted over two days are compressed into one. This often leads to exaggerated moves — either up or down — as traders rush to exit or enter before the holiday. This year’s rally was amplified by the shortened week, making the $2.375 gain in HEG26 more significant than it appears on paper.